Trump’s Taiwan gambit is already a gift to China, say some experts

TAIPEI – By laying out US arms sales to Taiwan as a bargaining chip with China, US President Donald Trump has handed a gift to Chinese President Xi Jinping in his efforts to undermine the Taiwanese government.

On May 18, China’s state media used Mr Trump’s comments to send a message at home and to Taiwan: that the US cannot be relied on to defend Taiwan, the island democracy that Beijing claims as its territory.

Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te, a frequent target of Beijing’s vitriol, and his Democratic Progressive Party can no longer rely on “unconditional indulgence” from the US, said the Global Times, a Chinese newspaper, citing a Chinese researcher.

“Security cannot be bought with military purchases; if you become a pawn, you will only be squeezed dry,” said Colonel Jiang Bin, a spokesman for China’s Ministry of National Defense, on May 18, referring to Taiwan.

The US leader’s comments were released over the weekend, after he left a summit with Mr Xi in Beijing on May 15.

Mr Trump said he was keeping a decision on a package of weapons to Taiwan worth around US$14 billion (S$17.9 billion) on hold and described it as a “very good negotiating chip” that could be used with Beijing.

“I’m holding that in abeyance, and it depends on China,” he said in an interview with Fox News. It was not immediately clear what the US leader wanted China to do in return.

Pressure on Iran?

The US went into the summit hoping to persuade China to do more to get Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Mr Trump later said he had discussed Iran with Mr Xi, but the details of their discussions have not emerged.

China has pushed Iran to negotiate with the US and has called for the strait to be open.

But Beijing has strong strategic reasons to avoid siding explicitly with the US and Israel against Iran, its partner in the Middle East, in a war it has repeatedly said should not have happened.

Even if China were willing to use its influence over Iran, it would not want it to be seen as an explicit quid pro quo for US concessions on Taiwan, said Mr ​​Bao Chengke, a researcher at the Shanghai Cross-Strait Research Association, an organisation in Shanghai.

“He tends to act like a businessman, understanding issues through the lens of dealmaking,” Mr Bao said of Mr Trump. “But tying the two issues so tightly together really isn’t feasible.”

More purchases of US goods?

If Mr Trump were to suspend the US$14 billion package or scale back the number and sophistication of the weapons, China could respond in a few ways, said Dr Xin Qiang, director of the Center for Taiwan Studies at Fudan University.

For instance, China could buy more American farm produce and Boeing planes, Dr Xin said.

Mr Trump and Boeing have already said that China had agreed to order 200 of the company’s planes.

The Trump administration also said on May 17 that China had agreed to “purchase at least US$17 billion per year of US agricultural products” in 2026, 2027 and 2028, though the amount in 2026 would be prorated.

Beijing’s official position is that Taiwan is a domestic issue and any continued US arms sales to the island are unacceptable. But it can be pragmatic too, Dr Xin said.

“China has never wanted to treat arms sales to Taiwan as a bargaining chip in negotiations with the United States,” he said. “But realistically, any issue can in essence become a bargaining chip in the course of international relations or great power competition.”

A messaging win for Beijing

In some ways, Beijing has already benefited from Mr Trump’s gambit.

His remarks suggested he had partly absorbed China’s depiction of Mr Lai as a dangerous separatist seeking to lead the US to war. (Mr Lai and his government say Taiwan is in reality already independent and that it is Beijing that is the aggressor.)

Mr Trump also questioned whether the US could successfully come to Taiwan’s defence in a war. “I’m not looking to have somebody go independent, and, you know, we’re supposed to travel 9,500 miles (15,300km) to fight a war,” he said.

Dr Minxin Pei, a professor at Claremont McKenna College who studies Chinese leadership politics, said: “I think Xi Jinping believes he succeeded in one respect in this summit – that is, in educating Trump on Taiwan.”

Dr Wang Wen, a former Chinese journalist in Beijing who is now a professor at Renmin University in Beijing, said: “In the view of Chinese people, Trump’s comments on the Taiwan issue are a massive breakthrough.”

Beijing can gain some advantage simply if Mr Trump puts off any approval for long enough, some analysts said.

“The question is whether the pending US$14 billion sale is delayed for weeks, months or longer,” said Mr Craig Singleton, China Programme senior director at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies in Washington.

“A prolonged hold, especially one shaped by Beijing’s objections, would raise much more serious concerns about the reliability of US deterrence.”

Trouble for Taiwan?

Taiwan’s main opposition party, the Nationalist Party, which supports closer ties with China, has seized on this moment to argue that Mr Lai has pushed the island into a dangerous bind – distrusted by Beijing, unable to rely on Washington.

“I believe the Trump-Xi summit represents a turning point for Taiwan,” Mr Su Chi, a former senior official who worked under Nationalist Party administrations, said at a forum in Taipei. “Our big brother, America, I’m sorry, he has too many problems right now and simply cannot take care of us here.”

Mr Lai and his officials have argued that Mr Trump’s comments do not shift relations. They have pointed to parts of Mr Trump’s comments, including that “nothing’s changed” on policy towards Taiwan.

They have also pointed to comments from Trump administration officials, including US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, that policy on Taiwan is unchanged.

“I don’t think the Taiwanese public needs to worry,” Taiwanese Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs Chen Ming-chi told reporters. “I believe the United States security commitments to us and our bilateral economic and trade relations are being maintained just as before.” NYTIMES